The Poolie Bunker

After each game the spreadsheet will be updated so we can track Pools's progress over the season.

Hi Stocksfield.
I may sound a bit thick here, but I don't understand how it works, is it possible for you to explain this in layman's terms?

Thanks for your reply, yes hopefully I can!

Each game, I work out the chances of Pools winning, the chances of Pools losing and the chances of the draw.

So say for example, I think Pools have a 50% chance of winning a match, 25% chance of losing and 25% chance of winning.

I then work out what are the expected points to be gained from that match taking into account the chances of Pools winning and drawing.

So the % chance of a win multipled by 3 points then we add the % chance of a draw multiplied by 1 point and we get the expected points from that game.

So in the example, we get 50% of 3 plus 25% of 1 which gives an expected points from that game as 1.75.

I have split the spreadsheet into home, away and total points, expected and actual.
And then used a formula from these expected points and the actual gained points to calculate what will be the final points home, away and the total.

At the moment from these 2 matches Pools are expected to finish the season on around 62.44 points.
This will change from game to game and will give a good indication if Pools are doing well or not!

Hopefully that explains it in a way you can understand.

So far so good after 2 matches, predicted total points, 2.88, Pools have 4.
Now our attentions turn to the away match at Altrincham...

Thanks--are these your predictions or the bookies odds of each result?

Before each match, I come up with my own percentages for Pools winning, drawing and losing.

A very good result away to Altrincham puts Pools well ahead of the predicted points expected after 3 games.
I am impressed with the 3 clean sheets.
Pools are now on for a predicted play off place with 70 points.
Home to Woking on Saturday is next...

Going Underground.

Spreadsheet updated, a few tweaks to the formula used for season totals
Will be happy with a point away to Southend.

And a well earned point away to Southend so it proved.
2 home matches coming up...

A tricky game coming up against Boreham Wood.
I'll take remaining unbeaten come full time, or how about Pools sneak a narrow win!

Well it was a tricky game and Pools are still unbeaten!
Boston at home next...

2 points dropped against Boston for sure!

Pools will do well to get anything out of the Forest Green match.

We are a couple of points ahead of schedule, and still on for a play off place.
A long way to go and we need better attacking options!

As predicted, Pools first loss and our attack exposed for what it is, toothless!

3 points from the last 4 games has left Pools with a 'just outside of the play offs' season prediction.
We need some new blood up front for Saturday as we need to start scoring goals!

Expected Points 13.51, Actual Points 14.

Pools in a bit of a freefall but we must keep faith.
Pools have a chance to put things right, away to Gateshead, a match which Pools have more than a good chance of winning.

3 points added after a good win at Gateshead, we must do the same home to Tamworth, before tackling Carlisle and then York.
On target for the play offs still!

Tamworth - another tough game, can Pools score again and win!

Tamworth and Carlisle results updated.
York strong favourites to win on Saturday, can Pools somehow get something from the game!

Onto Sutton away and a match Pools ought to win!!!

I've amended the Predicted Full Season Home, Away and Total Points with a more accurate formula which should prove to be spot on as the season progresses. Pools are currently on for a finish of 65.74 points which would be outside of the play offs. 1 win from our last 10 has seen Pools plummet down the table. Can they stop the rot!!!

Pools search for their next win goes on (1 win in 11 league games), next match home to Solihull Moors.

If we can win 2 home games in a row (we did it first 2 home matches of this season) by beating Morecambe next, we will be on track with our expected points haul so far.

A win needed at Halifax to get Pools back on track. Unlikely or likely?!?!

Feels like a draw to me.

Well Pools did the unlikely and got the 3 point at Halifax!
Which puts Pools exactly more or less where they should be, on 26 points after 18 games, outside a play off place.

Home to Wealdstone next, we need to improve our points at home, a tough game no doubt on Saturday, a big test for the team and the manager!

Yet another draw!!!

After 19 matches, we are more or less 1 point behind the expected total points.

Eastleigh odds put in. Another draw?!?

A great away win at Eastleigh, puts Pools ahead of the expected no. of points after 20 games.
Same number of points away as we have at home!
Next two league matches are at home...

The win against Truro has set up Pools nicely to try to get back on target with our expected home points.
A win against Yeovil and we will also be setting up a realistic challenge for a play off spot!

Played 22 games, Expected Points so far, 33.30, Actual Points so far 33.

Next up is away to Braintree Town on Sunday.

A tough home match with Scunthorpe coming up next...

Spreadsheet updated with the expected home loss to Scunthorpe and odds entered for the away match at Rochdale where another defeat is expected.

Pools finding their level in the National League, midtable!!!

Where did that result come from!!! 2-1 away win at Rochdale.

After 25 games, expected points 36.87, actual points 37.

Away to Woking next...

A heavy away defeat certainly brought things back down to earth.
Now 2 home games, what will Pools do!

Well we managed to beat Altrincham (just), now onto the next match, home to Gateshead.

After 27 games, our predicted total points so far is 39.92, we are on 40 points.

Somehow Pools managed to get the 3 points against Gateshead!
Next up away to Brackley Town...

Aldershot next, looks like another tight match, we need to improve our home points versus expected if we are to make the playoffs!

Awful, awful, awful!!! 3-0 home defeat and the worst of it is that it was fully deserved!
Away to Tamworth, damage limitation mode no doubt employed!

A point picked up at Tamworth is better than nothing as we stumble around waiting for our new owner to think things through.
We can write this season off, even if we make the play offs, there is no way we can win them, we are not even ready for league football by a long way.
See out the season, invest in some quality players and make a real go of it next season.

Oh yes we have the away match at York coming up, oh dear!!!

The expected defeat to York did happen but in different circumstances to what most on here predicted.

Next up is home to Sutton United.

Our home points are quite a bit behind expected, 24 points against an expected 28.28 (30.09 if you include the Sutton game), we therefore need to win that match to try and close that gap.

As for away, well that is a brighter story, 21 points obtained against an expected 18.37.

But overall, we are still predicted to finish just outside the play offs!

Sutton United was called off and apparently we have an away match at Wealdstone on Tuesday night.
York beat them 3-0 on Saturday with the home team having a player sent off, interesting to see how we do!!!

Another match called off, now Pools are away on the road again, this time at Solihull Moors.
3 points are needed at this stage of the season, normally an away point would be welcome but to keep up the hope, Pools need to win!

And Pools did win at Solihull!!!

Home to Carlisle next, a very tough match, who needs the points most?
Carlisle trying to catch up to Rochdale and York or Hartlepool trying to get within spitting distance of a play off place?

Never saw that coming!!! 3-1 home win over Carlisle.
We move on, 2 home matches coming up, odds will be updated nearer the time.

Odds put in for the Sutton home game.

Pools have a good chance in March to set themselves up for a right good go at the top teams in April.
You never know we may find ourselves in a play off spot come the end of March, if we play like we did against Carlisle!
But with Pools being Pools, who knows!